Monetary Policy and Identification in SVAR Models: A Data Oriented Perspective

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument.Monetary Policy; SVAR; Graphical Modelling;

Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Graphical Modelling and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Analysis

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. We conduct a cross-country analysis, considering European Monetary Union (EMU), Japan and US. We obtain some important results. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument (US and Japan). Moreover, there is not yet a widespread consensus on whether or not the European Monetary Union should be considered as a closed economy. Our results indicate that EMU official interest rate depends on the US federal funds rate.monetary policy; SVAR; graphical modelling

Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective

This paper applies graphical modelling theory to recover identifying restrictions for the analysis of monetary policy shocks in a VAR of the US economy. Results are in line with the view that only high-frequency data should be assumed to be in the information set of the monetary authority when the interest rate decision is taken.Monetary policy; SVAR; Graphical modelling

Strategic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: An Empirical Investigation

This paper identifies leadership regimes in monetary-fiscal policy interactions in three countries, the UK, the US and Sweden. We specify a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of an open economy and estimate it using Bayesian methods. We assume that the authorities can act strategically in a non-cooperative policy game, and compare different leadership regimes. We find that the model of fiscal leadership gives the best fit for the UK and Sweden, while in the US the Nash or non-strategic regime dominates.Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Leadership, Macroeconomic Stabilisation, Bayesian Estimation

Monetary Policy and Identification in SVAR Models: A Data Oriented Perspective

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument

Monetary Policy and Identification in SVAR Models: A Data Oriented Perspective

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument

Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective

In the light of the recent financial crisis, we take a panel cointegration approach that allows for structural breaks to the analysis of the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in nine economies of the European Monetary Union. While we find evidence for a level break in the cointegrating relationship, we do not find empirical support for a regime shift and hence for a change in the pricing of the determinants of sovereign spreads. Moreover, results show that (i) fiscal imbalances (namely expected government debt-to-GDP differentials) are the main long-run drivers of sovereign spreads; (ii) liquidity risks and cumulated inflation differentials have non-negligible weights; but (iii) all conclusions are ultimately connected to whether or not the sample of countries is composed of members of an Optimal Currency Area (OCA). In particular, we establish (i) that results are overall driven by those countries not passing the OCA test; and (ii) that investors closely monitor and severely punish the deterioration of expected debt positions of those economies exhibiting significant gaps in competitiveness

Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: A data-oriented perspective

In the literature using short-run timing restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in vector-auto-regressions (VAR) there is a debate on whether (i) contemporaneous real activity and prices or (ii) only data typically observed with high frequency should be assumed to be in the information set of the central bank when the interest rate decision is taken. This paper applies graphical modeling theory, a data-based tool, in a small-scale VAR of the US economy to shed light on this issue. Results corroborate the second type of assumption

Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks

We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit-financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs